Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees said in an interview with FOX Sports on the 22nd of last month (hereinafter Korean time) about the reason for not participating in the World Baseball Classic (WBC), “It is an honor to represent the country in the WBC. However, 9 “I think New York is a priority for me because I signed a two-year contract. I also have to focus more on the team as a captain.”

Judge hit 62 homers in 159 games last year. Roger Maris broke the American League record of 61 home runs in a single season, which was set in 1961 and held for 61 years. After the season, Judge, who easily beat Shohei Ohtani and became the first MVP of his career, looked around the free agency market and chose to stay with the Yankees on the condition of 9 years and 360 million dollars (approximately 468.3 billion won).

Participating in the WBC is a luxury for him. It’s his first season after signing a mammoth-level contract, but he has no time to focus on anything else. Since he said he would focus on the Yankees and do his best to prepare for the season, there is no choice but to pay attention to how many homers he will hit this year.

Judge’s home runs this season predicted by local statistics media are in the 40s. The fan graphs prediction system ZiPS suggests 46, Steamer 44, Baseball HQ and Rotowire each 48, The BAT 47, THE BAT X 41, and ATC 43.

Non-professional baseball fans who predict through simulation will easily put out more than 40 as predicted numbers. Predictions are only predictions to an extent, and it is difficult to guarantee accuracy. It is different from weather forecasting, which is based on the movement of clouds and air masses, and different from stock price forecasting, which quantifies the behavior of the market economy.

The only way to ensure objectivity is a statistical approach using past data. The Athletic, an American sports media, published a special article predicting Jersey’s home run this season on the 5th. This media predicted Judge’s home run number this year by collecting the home run records of hitters who hit 50 or more home runs in one season and looking at how much they increased or decreased. Introducing the conclusion in advance, I did not present specific figures, but I thought that the 40s were the most likely. 스포츠토토

First of all, Judge hit 52 home runs in 155 games in 2017, when he became the rookie of the year, and was named to the 50 home run club. However, he had a high absence rate from 2018 to 2020 due to frequent injuries to his wrists, flanks and calves. He hit 27 home runs in 112 games in 2018, 27 home runs in 102 games in 2019, and 9 home runs in 28 games in 2000. Because of this, it is even more difficult to predict the home run of Judge by looking at the recent ‘trend’.

In 2021, Judge filled the required at bat for the first time in four years, went out in 148 games and hit 39 home runs, and last year finally set the record for the most home runs in a season. If Judge is not sick, it is objectively proven that he has the qualities to make a long run as a home run king.

According to The Athletic, there are 46 batters who have hit 50 or more home runs in a single season. Among them, 43 (93%) hit 50 home runs, and the number of home runs decreased in the following season. When I averaged how much it decreased, it came out to be 14. The other three increased, with the help of steroids, Mark McGwire (52 in 1996 → 58 in 1997), Sammy Sosa (50 in 2000 → 64 in 2001), and the original home run king Bass Ruth (54 in 1920 → 54). 59 in 1921).

In other words, 48, minus 14 from last year’s 62, is the expected number of home runs for Judge this season according to historical data.

If more precise methods are used, the estimate will be smaller. Players with 55 or more hits were separated from those with fewer. Players who hit 55 or more homers lost an average of 18 the following year, while players who hit 55 or less lost an average of 11. Last year Jersey hit 55 or more, so applying the 18 reduction brings the number to 44 homers.

The Athletic added, “Among players who hit 55 or more, the decline is even greater in cases other than Maguire and Sosa in 1998, who were drug-dependent.” The width is about 20 to 25,’ he said. In other words, it would not be strange if Judge’s home runs were reduced by 20 to 25 compared to last year. There is a possibility that it will drop below 40.

The Athletic said, “Your chances of hitting 40-49 won’t exceed 50%.” It is not unreasonable to say that the probability of hitting 50 or more hits is 20% or more, and less than 40 is 30% or more.” He acknowledged that accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

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